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Late summer helps UK supermarket grocery sales bounce back

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The late summer and unexpected heatwave in early September helped lift grocery sales at UK supermarkets, with Total Till sales growing +10.3% year-on-year in the four weeks ending 9 September 2023, new data reveals.

The data from NIQ reveals that growth at the supermarkets during the four-week period increased by +7.2%, and peaked at 10.2% in the week ending 9 September, in which the UK experienced a heatwave. Volume sales during this week also improved to +2.1% for the first time since the first week of May 2023 suggesting improved consumer willingness to spend. Volume sales over the four-week period stabilised at -0.7%, but this is up from -3.8% last month.

As temperatures soared, this encouraged Brits to visit stores and loosen their purse strings and purchase more fresh food items, according the NIQ data. A total of £172m was spent on fresh poultry (value sales +13% and volumes +5%) in the four-week period, with chicken thighs and drumsticks (+28% value sales, volumes +15%) proving popular.

Sales also grew for fresh produce (value growth of +11.8% with volumes +2.1%), which included seasonal foods such as tomatoes (volumes +1.5%) and lettuce (volumes 3.9%). The end of summer clearances and back-to-school promotions also led to an increase in volume sales for general merchandise items (+1.7%) as shoppers were offered one-off bargains at most of the big supermarkets.

In addition, data from NIQ’s recent Consumer Outlook Mid-year report shows that the most important saving strategies at the moment are shopping at stores with loyalty points, using loyalty points to manage spend, and opting for private label.

Mike Watkins, NIQ’s UK Head of Retailer and Business Insight, said: “The warm weather has led consumers to shop more in-store, but online penetration remains unchanged in the last four weeks which has been an underlying trend this year. Shoppers are still using this channel but habits have changed. As they visit stores more often, consumers are reducing grocery spending online as they shop around to find the best prices. Shoppers go into a store around four times a week but place online grocery orders on average around twice a month.”

He added: “There are some improvements showing in shopper sentiment as inflation continues to slow and there is now a growth in real incomes. Retailers are keen to pass on price cuts as inflation continues to slow. However, they also need to make sure that messages resonate with price conscious consumers, as for some, their discretionary spending power is still limited.”

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