The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 3.6% in the 12 months to October 2025, down from 3.8% in September, while the 12-month inflation rate for food and non-alcoholic beverages was 4.9% in October 2025, up from 4.5% in September, according to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics.
Dr Kris Hamer, Director of Insight at the British Retail Consortium, said:
“Food inflation edged back closer to 5%, after some respite in September, in what will be unwelcome news for consumers just a week before the Budget. Despite this rise, headline inflation fell for the first time in seven months in October, helped by the introduction of a new energy price cap. Meanwhile, an early start to Black Friday promotions helped to keep clothing and footwear inflation low. There will also be some relief that, while the cost of the weekly shop remains high, some products including olive oil did fall in price on the month.
“Having seen the inflationary impact last year’s Budget, it is essential that the Chancellor does not come knocking at the door of retail once again. With prices still high and consumers feeling the pinch, the Budget is a crucial opportunity to alleviate some of the price pressures bearing down on the industry. Fulfilling the manifesto pledge to reduce the business rates burden on the high street will allow retailers to invest more to keep prices in check, benefiting households across the country.”
James Walton, Chief Economist at IGD, said:
“Despite this increase [in food inflation], we think it will average at around 4% for 2025. Therefore, food inflation is likely past its peak and retailers will use this as an opportunity to hold prices down to drive volume growth during the crucial Christmas trading period. However, many shoppers are still finding it tough and will be looking around to find the best possible value for money, with IGD ShopperVista data showing that 66% of people plan to shop for promotions more and 65% plan to use their loyalty cards more as a way of managing household budgets.”
“All eyes will now be on what is set to be a challenging Budget for the Chancellor. Food businesses will be assessing the implications in terms of additional costs impacting food inflation and any changes affecting households, which has the potential to impact spend.”
