The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 3.3% in the 12 months to March 2026, up from 3% in the 12 months to February, according to the Office for National Statistics.
Meanwhile, food and non-alcoholic beverage prices rose by 3.7% over the same period, up from 3.3% in the 12 months to February. ONS reported “small upward effects behind the change” from chocolate and confectionery, meat, fish and soft drinks categories, and noted that these were partially offset by small downward contributions from bread and cereals, and dairy products.
Motor fuels made the largest upward contribution to the monthly change in CPI annual rates. Prices in the transport division rose overall by 4.7% in the 12 months to March 2026, up from 2.4% in the 12 months to February. The average price of petrol rose by 8.6 pence per litre between February and March 2026, compared with a fall of 1.6 pence per litre between February and March 2025.
James Walton, Chief Economist at IGD, said:
“Food and drink inflation increased to 3.7% in March, with meat, fish, confectionery and soft drinks the most affected categories. It is likely that much of this is down to cost pressures already in the supply chain, not the immediate impact of events in the Middle East.
“However, the conflict is having an impact on forecourts, where prices at the pump have already risen. Over time, we expect cost pressures for food businesses to rise because food supply is energy intensive, with oil and gas involved at every stage in the process and this will be passed down the supply chain, eventually to food shoppers. Events are already affecting people’s outlook with latest IGD ShopperVista data showing that shopper confidence has dropped to -4, its lowest level since August 2023.
“The current ceasefire may slow further upward pressure but does not reverse costs already incurred and the effects will unfold over months ahead. It will move at different rates in the various categories, with price changes for salads and fruit and vegetables likely to pass through the system more quickly. Our forecasts remain unchanged that average food inflation is likely to exceed 4.8% for 2026 but could briefly peak at 8% if disruption to global energy markets persists, in the most severe but short‑lived energy shock scenario.”
